We discussed utilize near the money (NTM) calls to ride the momentum of an ascending stock in the previous article. Stocks which meet the ‘3M’ criteria might have better chances to outperform the market.
1）Momentum: The underlying stock just breaks up and is in a confirmed uptrend, which is supported by favorable technical indicators and fundamentals.
2） Multiple non-correlated evidences, such as：
- The stock is recommended by Investors Business Daily and/or Barron’s, such as it is on IBD Top 50 or one of the sector leaders.
- Phenomenon observed by myself, such as long line when dinning at Chipotle Mexican Grill, more electric cars on streets or in parking lots, more handbags of a brand, a full house of customers in Nordstrom, huge new job listing of your neighboring company (which usually means a M&A event might be imminent)
- Outperforming sectors:such as new energy, biotech and internet stocks of last year.
3）Market: We expect market will remain stable or maintain the uptrend. However, if there is a significant correction, most stock will go down with the broad market, no matter how pretty your chart appears to be.
I would like to use my own recent trade experience to help others get a better understanding of Near-The-Money calls.
My initial position was established in 2009 with an average cost of $22. At that time, I just relocated to Silicon Valley and spend most of my effort working on a startup I co-founded with my friends while keeping an eye on emerging opportunities. Without a mature methodology, I purchased some Tesla shares just because that 100% electric car seemed to be a cool idea for me. Tesla share price had been fluctuated up and down from 2009 to 2013 and Tesla (the car) and TSLA (the stock) had not gained a spot in the Hall of Fame yet. I did not pay much attention until 2013 when I overheard Elon Musk talking about his great venture of Tesla and SpaceX on NPR (National Public Radio) . In the early Spring of 2013, I spotted more and more Tesla cars when I was walking to the park, when I was on traffic duty and when I was in a parking lot . The following picture was taken on in the parking lot of The Computer History Museum, Mount View, California. My friends in other states confirmed they observed the same phenomenon . Indeed, Tesla is becoming a fashion among the riches . Meanwhile, it has been confirmed Tesla bumped up its productivity by tracking VINs, but still could not match the escalating demand .
TSLA started its brilliant run at early 2013. It appreciated 40% and touched $55 in early May. Elon Musk joked about a historical break even quarter. So far Tesla met all requirements of the 3Ms; a confirmed uptrend, a favorable fundamentals, multiple non correlated evidences (endorsements from reputable media, VINs and increasing popularity) and a stable stock market. Since Tesla was going to release the earning report on May 10, 2013, TSLA stock became more volatile. High vega ballooned the call price. A call option which strike is $15 (23%) out of the money and expire 4 months later was asked for $3.30. It might be hard to tell whether the SEP 21 13 $70 Call was still near the money, but I still want sufficient time to ride the uptrend. Fortunately, the rest of the story unfolded as expected and TSLA had a tremendous run! Tesla stock gapped up after earning report on May 10, 2013. The robust uptrend easily lasted more than 2 month. I closed all positions with 500% reward. At TSLA SEP 21 13 $70 Call expiration day, share price is 181, a.k.a this call had an intrinsic value of $111, which is 33,600% higher. Someone must have an extremely strong nerve to hold it!
I felt pure lucky for this kind of play. The chance of picking a super bull from thousands of stock are thin. I believe luck is balanced somehow. You won’t be able to lucky for a long run! I mentioned that the first 2Ms,（
SYNAPTICS is such a painful lesson I learned. SNAP was in confirmed uptrend since the beginning of the year of 2014. Synapitics is frequently featured on Investors Business Daily’s Top 50 and Sector Leaders. Both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis suggested that the company are in good track to bump up its profit. Some friends of mine left their admirable positions and joined Synaptics, which means SYNA was expanding rapidly. It seemed to be a perfect setup since SYNA easily met all requirements. I purchased $SYNA 19 APR14 65.0 C call which is at the money (ATM) call and have 2 months to run. However, there was a market correction lasted 2 months, SYNA never touched the strike price again in the next 2 months! All of my SYNA calls expired worthlessly! I immediately deleted SYNA from my watch list. However, a few month later, SYNA touched a new high of $92! Actually, it wad in the money right after the cell expired!
The take message: It is much difficult to profit from call purchase since we should take strike price, expiration date and the momentum of the underlying stock. Time erosion is still a haunting threat to the call owner. Sometimes you get tailwind, sometimes the wind turns against you.
Next time, I will introduce Deep In The Money Call to replace margin.